Ebb and Flow: US Politics over the years
Yes, sadly, its a f*cking cycle, saying it isn't doesn;t make it true....
"American politics is an ebb and flow. Hills and valleys, like the economic wave, up and down." â Wendy on Bsky.
Sounds familiar, doesnât it? This sentiment often feels like the default setting for explaining the chaos that is U.S. politics. The idea of politics following a predictable rhythmâa wave-like motion of highs and lows, progression and regressionâsounds comforting, almost poetic. But is it true? Letâs take a closer look, with a healthy dose of informal chatter and some good ol' fashioned cliches thrown in for spice.
The "Ebb and Flow" Theory: Riding the Political Wave
To begin, letâs break down this whole âebb and flowâ idea. The phrase conjures images of waves lapping at the shoreâone minute advancing, the next retreating. Itâs an easy metaphor for how politics feels: a progressive administration pushes forward, then a conservative one pulls back. Itâs like political yin and yang, right? For instance:
Civil Rights Movement: The 1960âs brought monumental progress with landmark legislation like the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Then, enter the backlash: the Southern Strategy, Nixonâs âlaw and orderâ rhetoric, and the rolling back of affirmative action in subsequent decades.
Economic Policies: FDRâs New Deal was the poster child for government intervention, but it wasnât long before Reaganomics turned the tide back to free-market ideals in the 1980s.
Womenâs Rights: The feminist movement gained momentum with Roe v. Wade in 1973, only to face resistance decades later, culminating in the 2022 Dobbs decision overturning it.
Immigration: The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act legalized millions of undocumented immigrants, but subsequent decades saw increasingly strict border policies and the rise of anti-immigration sentiment.
Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded access to healthcare in 2010, followed by years of efforts to dismantle it under conservative administrations.
Itâs like clockwork, or so it seems. History loves to repeat itself, and politics follows the script. When one side pushes too far, thereâs almost always a recoil.
Evidence for the Ebb and Flow: Patterns That Stick
Letâs throw in some evidence to support this cozy narrative. Historians and political scientists have long noted patterns in American politics. Arthur Schlesinger Jr., a historian, famously argued in his book The Cycles of American History that the U.S. alternates between liberal and conservative phases roughly every 30 years. Itâs a pendulumâswing left, swing right.
Take the economy, for example. Weâve got the roaring twenties (yay, unbridled capitalism!) followed by the Great Depression (oops, maybe not). Then comes the government intervention of the New Deal, followed by a post-war era of conservatism. Fast forward to the 1960sâ Great Society and civil rights gains, only to see the 1980s bring deregulation and tax cuts. Itâs a political cha-cha: two steps forward, one step back.
Even social movements follow this rhythm. The LGBTQ+ rights movement gained traction in the 2000s and early 2010s, culminating in the legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015. But as progress surged, backlash was inevitable. Enter waves of anti-trans legislation and renewed cultural battles over gender and sexuality. Itâs a tale as old as time.
The "False Hope" Argument: When Ebb and Flow Fails
But hereâs the thing: not everyone buys into the whole ebb-and-flow shtick. Critics argue that while some patterns exist, theyâre far from inevitable. History doesnât just chug along on autopilot. Itâs shaped by peopleâmessy, unpredictable, stubborn peopleâand the systems they create.
Take climate change, for instance. Thereâs no historical precedent for how we handle the global environmental crisis weâre facing today. This isnât your average political pendulum swinging back and forth; this is a ticking time bomb. And yet, progress remains painfully slow, with setbacks often driven by corporate interests and political gridlock. The "ebb and flow" idea feels woefully inadequate here.
Similarly, the rise of misinformation and hyper-polarization in the digital age has thrown a wrench into the works. Back in the day, political disagreements were about policy differences. Now? Weâre arguing over whether facts are even real. Social media algorithms have created echo chambers that amplify division, and experts like political scientist Ezra Klein argue that this level of polarization is unprecedented (Klein, 2020). How can you have an ebb and flow when half the country doesnât even agree on what the ocean looks like?
The Economic Wave Comparison: True-ish, ButâŚ
Economists do agree that economies operate in cycles (think boom and bust, recession and recovery). And since economic conditions heavily influence politics, thereâs some truth here. For example:
The Great Depression fueled progressive policies like Social Security.
The post-war boom gave us the suburban dream and Eisenhower conservatism.
The 2008 financial crisis sparked debates over regulation and inequality.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted healthcare and economic disparities, spurring temporary progressive policies, only to see resistance to long-term structural changes.
Butâand itâs a big butâpolitics isnât only shaped by economics. Cultural shifts, technological advancements, and external crises (think pandemics or wars) can radically reshape the landscape in ways that donât fit neatly into wave-like patterns. The cultural revolution of the 1960s wasnât just about economic conditions; it was about changing values and demographics.
So, Is It True or False?
Hereâs the million-dollar question: Is American politics truly an ebb and flow? The answer is... yes, with nuances? Itâs true in the sense that history shows recurring patterns of progress and backlash. But itâs false if you think these cycles are guaranteed or predictable. Life has a funny way of throwing curveballs.
Politics is shaped by countless variables: economic conditions, cultural movements, technological advancements, and good old-fashioned human stubbornness. While the idea of political waves makes for a tidy narrative, reality is messier. As author Heather Cox Richardson points out, political systems evolve over time, often in response to unique challenges that defy easy categorization (Richardson, 2020).
Why It Matters
Why do we even care whether politics is an ebb and flow? Because how we understand history shapes how we approach the future. If we assume progress will inevitably bounce back after setbacks, we risk complacency. On the flip side, if we see history as entirely unpredictable, we might feel powerless to make change.
The truth lies somewhere in between. Yes, patterns exist, and understanding them can help us make sense of the chaos. But we canât rely on the pendulum to swing back on its own. Progress requires actionâconsistent, intentional, tireless action.
The Final Takeaway
American politics is a lot like a roller coaster. There are highs and lows, twists and turns, and moments where youâre pretty sure youâre about to fly off the track. The ebb and flow metaphor captures part of that experience, but it doesnât tell the whole story. History isnât just waves in the ocean; itâs a storm, shaped by the winds of change, the tides of culture, and the occasional lightning strike of innovation or disaster.
Citations
Schlesinger Jr., Arthur. The Cycles of American History. 1986.
Klein, Ezra. Why Weâre Polarized. 2020.
Richardson, Heather Cox. Letters from an American.
"U.S. Political History." National Archives and Records Administration.
"The Great Depression and Its Legacy." Library of Congress.
"Civil Rights Era." National Museum of African American History and Culture