Let's cut the bullshit right now. We're barely into Donald Trump's second term, and already the question looms like a dark cloud over American democracy: Will this man, who has spent his entire political career testing the boundaries of our constitutional framework, attempt to bust through the two-term limit established by the 22nd Amendment? The very fact that we're having this conversation should scare the hell out of every American who still believes in the rule of law.
Look, I'm not some pearl-clutching traditionalist pining for the "good old days" of politics. Those never existed. But there's a damn good difference between the usual political shenanigans and what we're facing now: a former and current president who has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to push constitutional limits until they break.
The Constitutional Bulldozer's Playbook
Trump's relationship with the Constitution has always been more of a casual fling than a committed marriage. He approaches America's founding document like it's a menu at a restaurant—picking the parts he likes and sending back the rest. The 22nd Amendment is crystal clear: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." But clarity hasn't stopped Trump before, has it?
Remember when he challenged the very concept of birthright citizenship guaranteed by the 14th Amendment? When he floated the idea of using laws reminiscent of Japanese internment? When he tested the limits of presidential pardons? This isn't ancient history—these were trial balloons, test cases for a man who views constitutional limits as mere suggestions.
Trump's approach is as predictable as it is dangerous. First comes the "just asking questions" phase: "People are saying the 22nd Amendment doesn't apply if your terms aren't consecutive." Then his loyal media apparatus amplifies the message: "Constitutional scholars debate Trump's eligibility for 2028." Finally, what was once unthinkable becomes a legitimate "controversy" requiring "fair coverage."
This calculated strategy isn't just speculation—it's a pattern we've seen play out repeatedly. And with Trump once again in the Oval Office, the stakes couldn't be higher.
The MAGA Machine's Ripple Effect
Even if a third-term bid would ultimately crash and burn in the Supreme Court (and I'm not convinced it would, given the court's current composition), the mere floating of this possibility creates a ripple effect that could fundamentally distort the 2028 primary landscape.
Think about it: If you're a MAGA-faithful politician with presidential ambitions, what do you do if Trump hints at running again? Do you dare challenge the king? Hell no. You wait. You pledge loyalty. You put your own ambitions on ice. This isn't hypothetical—we watched Republican after Republican fall in line during the 2024 primary season once Trump announced his candidacy.
The brutal reality is that most MAGA candidates would rather delay their own political futures than risk being branded as disloyal to Trump. This creates a vacuum where potential candidates aren't building the necessary infrastructure for a 2028 run because they're waiting to see what Trump does. By the time filing deadlines appear in late 2027, it might be too late for them to mount a serious campaign.
And what about the non-MAGA Republicans? Those mythical creatures who supposedly still value constitutional norms? They're caught in an even more precarious position. Dismiss Trump's third-term claims outright, and you alienate his base. Take them seriously, and you legitimize a clearly unconstitutional power grab. So they'll likely do what they've done for years: offer mealy-mouthed non-answers while democracy burns around them.
The Geriatric Elephant in the Room
There's one factor that might make this entire discussion moot: Trump's age. By 2028, Trump would be 82 years old, surpassing Biden as the oldest serving president should he win. For a man who has made his opponent's age a central campaign issue, this presents an uncomfortable irony.
But don't breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Trump's ego has never let practical considerations stand in his way. If anything, the age factor might encourage him to explore third-term possibilities even more aggressively. What better way to assert your vitality than by claiming you're so essential to America that even the Constitution must bend to keep you in power?
Besides, who says Trump actually needs to run to leverage the third-term controversy? Simply by keeping the possibility alive, he maintains his grip on the Republican Party. Every Republican official will be forced to reckon with the question: "Do you support President Trump's right to run again in 2028?" There's no winning answer for them, and that's exactly how Trump wants it.
The Constitutional Crisis Brewing
Let's not fuck around here—the notion of Trump seeking a third term isn't just another quirky headline in our increasingly bizarre political circus. It's the potential seed of a constitutional crisis that would make the events of January 6th look like a minor disagreement.
The 22nd Amendment was ratified in 1951 for a damn good reason. After FDR's unprecedented four terms, Americans across the political spectrum recognized that too much power concentrated in one person for too long is dangerous, regardless of party. The two-term limit isn't some arbitrary restriction—it's a safeguard against authoritarianism, a recognition that healthy democracies require regular transfers of power.
If Trump were to seriously pursue a third term, he wouldn't just be challenging a single amendment; he'd be attacking the very concept of constitutional governance. The message would be clear: laws apply to everyone except the powerful. Once that principle takes hold, democracy doesn't die with a bang—it dies with a whimper, as institutions designed to check power simply roll over.
And let's be brutally honest about the Supreme Court's role in all this. The optimistic view is that even a conservative court would reject a blatantly unconstitutional third-term bid. But after watching the court's increasing politicization, can we really be sure? All it takes is a creative legal theory, a politically expedient moment, and a court willing to place politics above principle.
Washington's Current Reality
The immediate impact of this third-term speculation is already visible in Washington's power dynamics. Republican politicians aren't treating Trump as a lame duck president, despite the constitutional reality that this should be his final term. The mere possibility that he might find a way around the 22nd Amendment keeps them in line, fearful of crossing someone who might still hold the keys to power four years from now.
This creates a dangerous power imbalance. A president who believes they might maintain power indefinitely governs differently than one who accepts constitutional limits. Historical precedent shows that leaders who successfully extend their terms beyond constitutional limits rarely stop at just one extension. Once the principle is breached, the dam breaks.
Meanwhile, Democrats face their own strategic dilemma. Push too hard against Trump's third-term musings, and they risk elevating fringe theories into the mainstream discourse. Ignore them, and they might miss critical early warning signs of a genuine constitutional threat.
The Soul of American Democracy
At its core, this isn't just about Donald Trump. It's about whether America still believes in its founding principle that no one—absolutely no one—is above the law. It's about whether we still believe in the peaceful transfer of power as the hallmark of a functioning democracy.
The framers of the Constitution weren't perfect, but they understood one thing with crystal clarity: power corrupts, and limitations on that power are essential. The 22nd Amendment represents America's acknowledgment of this fundamental truth. To challenge it isn't just legally dubious—it's a betrayal of the American experiment itself.
We find ourselves at a crossroads where the unthinkable has become discussable. The very fact that we're seriously contemplating whether a president might try to circumvent term limits shows how far our political norms have deteriorated. In healthy democracies, this conversation would be relegated to the fringe. In America today, it's mainstream political analysis.
What Happens Next
So where does this leave us? In a precarious position where speculation about a third Trump term isn't just idle political gossip—it's a serious consideration for understanding current and future power dynamics in Washington.
Republican politicians, terrified of being caught on the wrong side of a potential Trump comeback, will continue their supplication. The conservative media ecosystem will gradually normalize discussions of constitutional "loopholes." And the American public will become increasingly desensitized to what should be an outrageous proposition.
The most dangerous outcome isn't necessarily that Trump successfully secures a third term—the legal hurdles remain significant. The real danger is the normalization of anti-constitutional thinking, the growing acceptance that rules are made to be broken by those powerful enough to break them.
Democracy doesn't typically die in dramatic fashion. It erodes gradually, as concepts once considered foundational become subject to debate, as institutions designed to check power become subservient to it, and as the public grows too exhausted to defend norms they once held sacred.
We're witnessing this erosion in real time. The question isn't just whether Trump will seek a third term—it's whether our democratic institutions still have the strength and independence to stop him if he does.
The Historical Verdict
History doesn't judge kindly those who remain silent in the face of democratic backsliding. When future Americans look back on this era, they won't just evaluate Trump's actions—they'll evaluate how institutions and ordinary citizens responded to those actions.
Did media organizations treat constitutional violations as serious threats or as ratings-driving entertainment? Did political opponents demonstrate courage or calculation? Did the American public recognize the danger or dismiss it as partisan hyperbole?
Trump has already secured his place in American history books. What remains to be determined is whether he'll be recorded as a disruptive but ultimately constrained president, or as the leader who exposed the fragility of American democracy by successfully challenging its most fundamental limits.
The late Representative John Lewis once said, "Democracy is not a state. It is an act."1 The act of defending democracy requires vigilance, courage, and a willingness to stand for principle even when doing so comes with political cost. These qualities have been in short supply among those with the power to check Trump's ambitions.
Political scientist Larry Diamond noted that "democracies often die not through violent overthrow but through the steady degradation of political norms and institutions."2 The normalization of third-term speculation represents exactly this kind of degradation—a slow-motion constitutional crisis playing out before our eyes.
The question "Will Trump seek a third term?" isn't just political handicapping. It's a litmus test for whether America still believes in constitutional governance or whether we've already accepted its decline. The answer will reveal far more about the state of our democracy than about the ambitions of one man.
Footnotes
John Lewis, in his final essay published posthumously in The New York Times, July 30, 2020.
Stirewalt, C. 2025 “Trump’s third-term tease is a lame-duck hedge” The Hill
Larry Diamond, "Facing Up to the Democratic Recession," Journal of Democracy, January 2015.
Kimmel had an answer for the fpotus running a third time. Have Obama enter the race in 2028, if presidents can run three times.
We might not make it through his 2nd term! He’s jackhammering everything!