I read this article with my “doctor-clinical” glasses on and understand, I think, your intention to call bullshit where it’s due and lay groundwork for a more fact-based approach. As I’ve become more full-time in the analysis of news department, I spend a lot of time digging through Pew Research, Gallup, big media org polling, and discover countless flaws - as you do, as you mentioned. It takes an extraordinary amount of effort to weed out the signal from the noise. I so, so, so fucking “get it”.
My brother spent 5 years working for a polling company (I think it was Gallup). He spent hours on the phone during the evenings with an auto-dialer outbound calling potential respondents, who he never was given the chance to see the “logic” of selection. He’d spend hours talking to people in one state or another (not his own). The number of “fuck you” hangups was prolific - he was high in his team when he pulled in 8% of those called willing to answer poll questions. Then they had to be reviewed and if there was ANY inconsistencies, in asking or answering, the result of the call was thrown out completely.
I say that to say this: I learned then that to get to good data, the hardest function involved is scrubbing the shit out of it. Even then we end up with only a partial picture. My Overton Window is better set by a trip to my goddamn local grocery store and observing people pick groceries off the shelf. I can tell who’s stressed out, looking at prices carefully, and who’s just throwing the first match - regardless of price - into their carts. I go (due to the hours I work) very early on weekdays and mid-day on weekends, and see both families and single or paired seniors shopping. It’s a case study in tactile polling. And you probably wouldn’t be surprised, going back to my “doctor / clinical” view, that the Grocery Store poll method tends to fit more closely with the headlines in the NYT, WSJ, WAPO, LA Times, and Atlantic that I read front to back than any new “poll insight” story. It’s a weird cohort effect as well.
Great work, Wendy - thank you so much for your analysis and thoughts! I’m grateful you’re here sharing this with me.
Minor nitpick, the S&P 500 is down now compared to the beginning of November. All of the post election gains are now gone.
That said, I don't think stock prices generally reflect the prosperity or lack thereof of the working and middle classes. Though it certainly can affect retirement accounts.
I appreciate your premise and can’t disagree w/the overall message. However your characterization of inflation is misleading. You refer to the 9.1% inflation under Biden, as something created with intention? The fact is we were recovering from a Global Pandemic, resulting in a global economic shutdown. The skyrocketing inflation during that time was not unique to the US. It was a global phenomenon. Likewise, I find your suggestion re: inflation levels, as inherited by the current administration, as ‘off’ - when numerous reliable sources have compared the US economy and inflationary measures prior to January as ‘strong and robust’. I don’t dispute your overall message- we are manipulated by the mainstream media and their use of polling only enforces that. However, the fact is, trump campaigned on promises to reign in COGs for US citizens. Last I checked, the tens of thousands of federal and ancillary workers who just lost their jobs, the thousands of hardworking farmers who’ve lost business due to adverse trade policies being implemented- to name just a few- are all US citizens who are now scrambling to pay their rent/mortgage & put food on the table. You may hold optimism for the outcome of the many outrageous economic policies and changes being implemented w/absolute intention. I do not. Perhaps time will tell?
I read this article with my “doctor-clinical” glasses on and understand, I think, your intention to call bullshit where it’s due and lay groundwork for a more fact-based approach. As I’ve become more full-time in the analysis of news department, I spend a lot of time digging through Pew Research, Gallup, big media org polling, and discover countless flaws - as you do, as you mentioned. It takes an extraordinary amount of effort to weed out the signal from the noise. I so, so, so fucking “get it”.
My brother spent 5 years working for a polling company (I think it was Gallup). He spent hours on the phone during the evenings with an auto-dialer outbound calling potential respondents, who he never was given the chance to see the “logic” of selection. He’d spend hours talking to people in one state or another (not his own). The number of “fuck you” hangups was prolific - he was high in his team when he pulled in 8% of those called willing to answer poll questions. Then they had to be reviewed and if there was ANY inconsistencies, in asking or answering, the result of the call was thrown out completely.
I say that to say this: I learned then that to get to good data, the hardest function involved is scrubbing the shit out of it. Even then we end up with only a partial picture. My Overton Window is better set by a trip to my goddamn local grocery store and observing people pick groceries off the shelf. I can tell who’s stressed out, looking at prices carefully, and who’s just throwing the first match - regardless of price - into their carts. I go (due to the hours I work) very early on weekdays and mid-day on weekends, and see both families and single or paired seniors shopping. It’s a case study in tactile polling. And you probably wouldn’t be surprised, going back to my “doctor / clinical” view, that the Grocery Store poll method tends to fit more closely with the headlines in the NYT, WSJ, WAPO, LA Times, and Atlantic that I read front to back than any new “poll insight” story. It’s a weird cohort effect as well.
Great work, Wendy - thank you so much for your analysis and thoughts! I’m grateful you’re here sharing this with me.
Minor nitpick, the S&P 500 is down now compared to the beginning of November. All of the post election gains are now gone.
That said, I don't think stock prices generally reflect the prosperity or lack thereof of the working and middle classes. Though it certainly can affect retirement accounts.
I appreciate your premise and can’t disagree w/the overall message. However your characterization of inflation is misleading. You refer to the 9.1% inflation under Biden, as something created with intention? The fact is we were recovering from a Global Pandemic, resulting in a global economic shutdown. The skyrocketing inflation during that time was not unique to the US. It was a global phenomenon. Likewise, I find your suggestion re: inflation levels, as inherited by the current administration, as ‘off’ - when numerous reliable sources have compared the US economy and inflationary measures prior to January as ‘strong and robust’. I don’t dispute your overall message- we are manipulated by the mainstream media and their use of polling only enforces that. However, the fact is, trump campaigned on promises to reign in COGs for US citizens. Last I checked, the tens of thousands of federal and ancillary workers who just lost their jobs, the thousands of hardworking farmers who’ve lost business due to adverse trade policies being implemented- to name just a few- are all US citizens who are now scrambling to pay their rent/mortgage & put food on the table. You may hold optimism for the outcome of the many outrageous economic policies and changes being implemented w/absolute intention. I do not. Perhaps time will tell?
Revisions made to reflect a better nuance.
Appreciate your listening, responding. Appreciate your voice, Wendy.
I am beholden to you, and the others, who are our readers.